This episode is brought to you by curiositystream, get free access to nebula the streaming service built by all your favorite youtubers. When you sign up for curiosity stream at the link below [ Music ], if you & # 39, ve been subscribed to my channel for a while, you’ve, probably seen several of my videos on climate change.
I periodically return to the topic when new studies are published because it’s, an important issue, as you’re, likely aware climate change can be a very polarizing topic, get it polarizing polar ice caps, never mind.
The fact of the matter is that every time this channel or anyone else releases a video on the changing climate, a certain type of person comes out of the woodwork to yell about ice ages, reversing poles and the solar minimum.
Now the easy thing to do is ignore those people and just provide the new data from relevant scientific studies, but i’m, going to take a slightly different approach this time today, we are going to look at some new findings, but we’re also going to talk about why you should care about the changing climate, regardless of what you think is causing it.
Let’s begin with the premise accepted by the vast majority of global scientists based on their research. The earth is experiencing higher than normal temperatures largely influenced by human activity, specifically the burning of fossil fuels and the accumulation of high levels of co2 in the atmosphere.
These increased temperatures will cause a destructive feedback. Loop. Higher temperatures will melt more ice, which will release more greenhouse gases, which will further increase the temperature and so on.
As global average temperature rises. We’ll, see an increase in erratic and violent weather conditions such as hurricanes droughts and their byproducts like flooding, wildfires and the spread of disease.
Obviously, these things are all harmful to human flourishing and should be avoided if at all possible, the general consensus is pretty clear we are already experiencing and will continue to experience climate-related fallout.
The question that scientists are now trying to answer is just how sensitive is the climate to increase levels of carbon dioxide if they can zero in on a likely answer, we can better understand what to expect in the coming decades.
A new international study published in the journal reviews of geophysics is the most recent step in the search organized by the world climate research program and consisting of a team of scientists from 10 different countries.
The report titled an assessment of earth’s. Climate sensitivity, using multiple lines of evidence, has clarified our understanding of just how much the climate will warm if atmospheric co2 levels remain at double the pre-industrial level.
On the cusp of the industrial revolution, the planet’s, atmospheric co2 concentration, measured 278 parts per million. Today, two and a half centuries and billions of tons of fossil fuels. Later we have a concentration of 414 parts per million.
If the buildup of co2 continues at the current rate, we will reach 560 ppm by 2080, putting us at more than twice the concentration of co2 prior to the industrial revolution. The new report attempts to refine our predictions of how those increased levels will affect our climate.
The study was conducted using three key batches of evidence: first, temperature measurements taken by thermometers from the year 1850, when significant coverage first became available to the present second evidence from ancient climate records from the peak of the last ice age around 20 000 years ago, when Co2 concentration was lower than today and from a period of warmer temperatures around 4 million years ago, when concentration was higher.
This evidence is obtained from the makeup of gases trapped in ancient ice cores. Finally, the study makes use of modern observations, such as satellite imagery and advanced climate models that examine the physics of interactions within the climate system.
These three lines of evidence gave the researchers a basis from which they could estimate with a higher degree of certainty. The long-term effect of an increased concentration of co2 in the atmosphere, so what did the team determine? One of their most significant findings is the fact that, by their assessment, the warming we’ve, seen since pre-industrial times would be all but impossible without human activity.
The rate of increase is simply too dramatic to be caused solely by natural forces and clearly follows the increase in human industry over the last two and a half centuries, but as important as that assessment is their other findings.
Give us a greater understanding of what level of warming we can expect for many years now. The standard estimate for warming has been between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees celsius. More recently, the ipcc’s. Fifth assessment report gave this range a likelihood of at least 66 percent.
That meant that there was up to a 33 chance that the levels of warming would be either above or below that range. Thanks to this new study, we can say with confidence that the range has narrowed to between 2.
3 and 4.5 degrees or perhaps even narrower. This means the lower end of the range has risen significantly, and the scientific community is now more certain that the warming effect will not be as small as we had hoped.
The likelihood of the new range remains mostly the same: around 66 probability with an 18 chance of hitting the upper end of the estimate, a 5 chance of the warming remaining below 2 degrees and a 5 chance of it exceeding 5.
7 degrees. Showing a bunch of numbers is one thing, but in order to really get the point across, we need to look at how these numbers apply to the real world. Take the prolonged heat wave in the siberian arctic, for example, like most places, siberia can get pretty warm in the summer, but what we’re, seeing now this huge increase in both the intensity and duration of the heat wave is unprecedented and, according to The authors of the study represents unequivocal evidence of climate change and that the record high temperatures would be impossible without human production of greenhouse gases.
For the last six months, record-shattering temperatures in the arctic have led to massive wildfires, generating huge plumes of smoke, which have been visible from space, with average temperatures reaching 5 degrees celsius over normal, even hitting 38 degrees celsius, the highest temperature ever recorded in the arctic circle.
It’s, clear that what we’re seeing in siberia and other parts of the arctic is a consequence of the changing climate for those of you thinking. So what this doesn’t affect me. Yes, it does dramatic changes in the arctic can have serious ramifications the world over.
For example, in the uk there are six main weather systems. Four of them come directly from the arctic or polar regions, extreme cold and blizzards intense rainfall and flooding heat waves. They can all be caused by disturbances in the fragile systems of the arctic.
This leads us back to the vicious cycle i mentioned earlier with the arctic, literally on fire and heating. Up at an unprecedented pace. We’ll, see a greater reduction in sea ice which will release more greenhouse gases further, exacerbating the problem and leading to more extreme weather around the world.
This all seems very dire and it is but, as promised, let’s. Talk about why this should matter to you, even if you don’t, believe humans have anything to do with climate change. If you’re out for a walk and someone is driving their car straight at you and you’re, clearly going to be run over.
What would you do you’d? Do everything in your power to avoid being run over right? Does it matter whether the driver is purposely trying to kill you or if his brakes were out? No because the end result is undesirable either way the things that led up to the moment of you having to avoid a car shouldn’t factor into your consideration of how to respond.
The same is true of climate fallout, regardless of whether you think climate change is entirely normal or dramatically worsened by human activity. The end result is apparent. We’re, seeing massive increases in violent weather, more frequent hurricanes, unseasonably hot weather, droughts, wildfires floods, extended summers which allow the proliferation of disease-carrying insects, the death of crops as the region’s.
Climate begins to change. All of these things demand solutions, whether we humans are to blame or not. Why allow ourselves to be hit by a car if we can take steps to avoid it there’s. No such thing as a partisan thermometer and the fact that the earth is warming is just that a fact we can squabble over causes, though we really shouldn’t when 97 of climate scientists agree that the current predicament is caused largely by human activity Or we can get to work on finding solutions to adapt to our changing climate.
As far as solutions go, we need to be careful not to rely too heavily on technocratic fixes and focus on the main problem areas just about everyone. Even climate change. Skeptics can agree that co2 is a potent warming agent and we currently produce a lot of it.
If we can dramatically reduce the amount of greenhouse gases we release into the atmosphere that would help prevent a runaway warming effect that could result in catastrophic consequences. That being said, we need to be realistic.
We’ve, already set in motion a scenario which will inevitably release more warming agents that have been trapped in ice for thousands or millions of years. We need to end our reliance on fossil fuels, but we also need to prepare for the now unpreventable fallout that will cause serious damage to the world’s.
At-Risk areas already hot regions will face record heatwaves and droughts which will adversely affect food production. The continued warming and acidification of the world’s. Oceans will destroy fragile ecosystems like coral reefs and threaten fish populations, which many groups heavily rely on for food islands and coastal regions are at risk of flooding or complete submersion.
I was recently in the marshall islands to shoot a documentary, and everywhere we looked, we could see evidence of climate change stretches of land that were once habitable were now completely submerged.
Water rose up over stone barriers and flooded streets houses had waves literally knocking on their door. These are the communities that are at the forefront of climate disaster. The world needs to take notice of these places that function as the canary in the coal mine.
Climate change will disrupt more than just island nations and coastal regions, and we need to focus on building infrastructure and mitigation measures to help offset both the cost and the amount of human suffering.
We’re bound to see. We need to explore new ways of producing food like vertical farming. We should greenify our existing buildings and set strict guidelines for new ones. We need to develop a plan for those communities displaced by climate change and work towards providing housing and jobs for our friends and neighbors.
Ideally, in a new climate mitigation sector, we’re all in the path of this oncoming car and whatever you think. The reason is that we’re in danger. I think we can all agree that we need to step out of the way if you & # 39.
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